Individual outcome prediction models for patients with COVID-19 based on their first day of admission to the intensive care unit.

Department of Clinical Laboratory, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. Electronic address: raulr@bellvitgehospital.cat. Department of Intensive Care, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. Department of Clinical Laboratory, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. Department of Anaesthesiology and Resuscitation, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Research Network in Respiratory Diseases (CIBERES), Madrid, Spain. Department of Internal Medicine, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.

Clinical biochemistry. 2022;:13-21

Abstract

BACKGROUND Currently, good prognosis and management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 are crucial for developing disease management guidelines and providing a viable healthcare system. We aimed to propose individual outcome prediction models based on binary logistic regression (BLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) analyses of data collected in the first 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with COVID-19 infection. We also analysed different variables for ICU patients who survived and those who died. METHODS Data from 326 critically ill patients with COVID-19 were collected. Data were captured on laboratory variables, demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and hospital stay related information. These data were compared with patient outcomes (survivor and non-survivor patients). BLR was assessed using the Wald Forward Stepwise method, and the ANN model was constructed using multilayer perceptron architecture. RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ANN model was significantly larger than the BLR model (0.917 vs 0.810; p < 0.001) for predicting individual outcomes. In addition, ANN model presented similar negative predictive value than the BLR model (95.9% vs 94.8%). Variables such as age, pH, potassium ion, partial pressure of oxygen, and chloride were present in both models and they were significant predictors of death in COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS Our study could provide helpful information for other hospitals to develop their own individual outcome prediction models based, mainly, on laboratory variables. Furthermore, it offers valuable information on which variables could predict a fatal outcome for ICU patients with COVID-19.

Methodological quality

Publication Type : Observational Study

Metadata

MeSH terms : COVID-19