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Dietary Glycemic Index and Load and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Assessment of Causal Relations.
Livesey, G, Taylor, R, Livesey, HF, Buyken, AE, Jenkins, DJA, Augustin, LSA, Sievenpiper, JL, Barclay, AW, Liu, S, Wolever, TMS, et al
Nutrients. 2019;11(6)
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It is generally accepted that certain diet and lifestyle choices contribute to a person’s risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this meta-analysis, researchers set out to review previous studies and assess whether there is any evidence that the amount and type of carbohydrate (measured by Glycaemic Index (GI) and Glycaemic Load (GL)) in a person’s diet has a direct influence on their risk of developing T2D. The authors concluded with a high level of confidence that eating high GI and GL foods can lead to a higher risk of developing T2D. They suggest that nutrition advice that favours low GI and GL foods could produce significant cost savings for public healthcare.
Abstract
While dietary factors are important modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D), the causal role of carbohydrate quality in nutrition remains controversial. Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) have been examined in relation to the risk of T2D in multiple prospective cohort studies. Previous meta-analyses indicate significant relations but consideration of causality has been minimal. Here, the results of our recent meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies of 4 to 26-y follow-up are interpreted in the context of the nine Bradford-Hill criteria for causality, that is: (1) Strength of Association, (2) Consistency, (3) Specificity, (4) Temporality, (5) Biological Gradient, (6) Plausibility, (7) Experimental evidence, (8) Analogy, and (9) Coherence. These criteria necessitated referral to a body of literature wider than prospective cohort studies alone, especially in criteria 6 to 9. In this analysis, all nine of the Hill's criteria were met for GI and GL indicating that we can be confident of a role for GI and GL as causal factors contributing to incident T2D. In addition, neither dietary fiber nor cereal fiber nor wholegrain were found to be reliable or effective surrogate measures of GI or GL. Finally, our cost-benefit analysis suggests food and nutrition advice favors lower GI or GL and would produce significant potential cost savings in national healthcare budgets. The high confidence in causal associations for incident T2D is sufficient to consider inclusion of GI and GL in food and nutrient-based recommendations.
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Dietary Glycemic Index and Load and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Updated Meta-Analyses of Prospective Cohort Studies.
Livesey, G, Taylor, R, Livesey, HF, Buyken, AE, Jenkins, DJA, Augustin, LSA, Sievenpiper, JL, Barclay, AW, Liu, S, Wolever, TMS, et al
Nutrients. 2019;(6)
Abstract
Published meta-analyses indicate significant but inconsistent incident type-2 diabetes(T2D)-dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) risk ratios or risk relations (RR). It is nowover a decade ago that a published meta-analysis used a predefined standard to identify validstudies. Considering valid studies only, and using random effects dose-response meta-analysis(DRM) while withdrawing spurious results (p < 0.05), we ascertained whether these relationswould support nutrition guidance, specifically for an RR > 1.20 with a lower 95% confidence limit>1.10 across typical intakes (approximately 10th to 90th percentiles of population intakes). Thecombined T2D-GI RR was 1.27 (1.15-1.40) (p < 0.001, n = 10 studies) per 10 units GI, while that forthe T2D-GL RR was 1.26 (1.15-1.37) (p < 0.001, n = 15) per 80 g/d GL in a 2000 kcal (8400 kJ) diet.The corresponding global DRM using restricted cubic splines were 1.87 (1.56-2.25) (p < 0.001, n =10) and 1.89 (1.66-2.16) (p < 0.001, n = 15) from 47.6 to 76.1 units GI and 73 to 257 g/d GL in a 2000kcal diet, respectively. In conclusion, among adults initially in good health, diets higher in GI or GLwere robustly associated with incident T2D. Together with mechanistic and other data, thissupports that consideration should be given to these dietary risk factors in nutrition advice.Concerning the public health relevance at the global level, our evidence indicates that GI and GLare substantial food markers predicting the development of T2D worldwide, for persons ofEuropean ancestry and of East Asian ancestry.
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A systematic review and metaanalysis of energy intake and weight gain in pregnancy.
Jebeile, H, Mijatovic, J, Louie, JCY, Prvan, T, Brand-Miller, JC
American journal of obstetrics and gynecology. 2016;(4):465-483
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Gestational weight gain within the recommended range produces optimal pregnancy outcomes, yet many women exceed the guidelines. Official recommendations to increase energy intake by ∼ 1000 kJ/day in pregnancy may be excessive. OBJECTIVE To determine by metaanalysis of relevant studies whether greater increments in energy intake from early to late pregnancy corresponded to greater or excessive gestational weight gain. DATA SOURCES We systematically searched electronic databases for observational and intervention studies published from 1990 to the present. The databases included Ovid Medline, Cochrane Library, Excerpta Medica DataBASE (EMBASE), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Science Direct. In addition we hand-searched reference lists of all identified articles. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Studies were included if they reported gestational weight gain and energy intake in early and late gestation in women of any age with a singleton pregnancy. Search also encompassed journals emerging from both developed and developing countries. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS Studies were individually assessed for quality based on the Quality Criteria Checklist obtained from the Evidence Analysis Manual: Steps in the academy evidence analysis process. Publication bias was plotted by the use of a funnel plot with standard mean difference against standard error. Identified studies were meta-analyzed and stratified by body mass index, study design, dietary methodology, and country status (developed/developing) by the use of a random-effects model. RESULTS Of 2487 articles screened, 18 studies met inclusion criteria. On average, women gained 12.0 (2.8) kg (standardized mean difference = 1.306, P < .0005) yet reported only a small increment in energy intake that did not reach statistical significance (∼475 kJ/day, standard mean difference = 0.266, P = .016). Irrespective of baseline body mass index, study design, dietary methodology, or country status, changes in energy intake were not significantly correlated to the amount of gestational weight gain (r = 0.321, P = .11). CONCLUSION Despite rapid physiologic weight gain, women report little or no change in energy intake during pregnancy. Current recommendations to increase energy intake by ∼ 1000 kJ/day may, therefore, encourage excessive weight gain and adverse pregnancy outcomes.
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Efficacy of carbohydrate counting in type 1 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Bell, KJ, Barclay, AW, Petocz, P, Colagiuri, S, Brand-Miller, JC
The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology. 2014;(2):133-40
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although carbohydrate counting is the recommended dietary strategy for achieving glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes, the advice is based on narrative review and grading of the available evidence. We aimed to assess by systematic review and meta-analysis the efficacy of carbohydrate counting on glycaemic control in adults and children with type 1 diabetes. METHODS We screened and assessed randomised controlled trials of interventions longer than 3 months that compared carbohydrate counting with general or alternate dietary advice in adults and children with type 1 diabetes. Change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) concentration was the primary outcome. The results of clinically and statistically homogenous studies were pooled and meta-analysed using the random-effects model to provide estimates of the efficacy of carbohydrate counting. FINDINGS We identified seven eligible trials, of 311 potentially relevant studies, comprising 599 adults and 104 children with type 1 diabetes. Study quality score averaged 7·6 out of 13. Overall there was no significant improvement in HbA1c concentration with carbohydrate counting versus the control or usual care (-0·35% [-3·9 mmol/mol], 95% CI -0·75 to 0·06; p=0·096). We identified significant heterogeneity between studies, which was potentially related to differences in study design. In the five studies in adults with a parallel design, there was a 0·64% point (7·0 mmol/mol) reduction in HbA1c with carbohydrate counting versus control (95% CI -0·91 to -0·37; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION There is some evidence to support the recommendation of carbohydrate counting over alternate advice or usual care in adults with type 1 diabetes. Additional studies are needed to support promotion of carbohydrate counting over other methods of matching insulin dose to food intake. FUNDING None.
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Glycemic index, glycemic load, and chronic disease risk--a meta-analysis of observational studies.
Barclay, AW, Petocz, P, McMillan-Price, J, Flood, VM, Prvan, T, Mitchell, P, Brand-Miller, JC
The American journal of clinical nutrition. 2008;(3):627-37
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Inconsistent findings from observational studies have prolonged the controversy over the effects of dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) on the risk of certain chronic diseases. OBJECTIVE The objective was to evaluate the association between GI, GL, and chronic disease risk with the use of meta-analysis techniques. DESIGN A systematic review of published reports identified a total of 37 prospective cohort studies of GI and GL and chronic disease risk. Studies were stratified further according to the validity of the tools used to assess dietary intake. Rate ratios (RRs) were estimated in a Cox proportional hazards model and combined by using a random-effects model. RESULTS From 4 to 20 y of follow-up across studies, a total of 40 129 incident cases were identified. For the comparison between the highest and lowest quantiles of GI and GL, significant positive associations were found in fully adjusted models of validated studies for type 2 diabetes (GI RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.59; GL RR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.45), coronary heart disease (GI RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.56), gallbladder disease (GI RR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.40; GL RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.60), breast cancer (GI RR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.16), and all diseases combined (GI RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.19; GL RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.15). CONCLUSIONS Low-GI and/or low-GL diets are independently associated with a reduced risk of certain chronic diseases. In diabetes and heart disease, the protection is comparable with that seen for whole grain and high fiber intakes. The findings support the hypothesis that higher postprandial glycemia is a universal mechanism for disease progression.