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Deep Learning-Based Quantification of Epicardial Adipose Tissue Volume and Attenuation Predicts Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Asymptomatic Subjects.
Eisenberg, E, McElhinney, PA, Commandeur, F, Chen, X, Cadet, S, Goeller, M, Razipour, A, Gransar, H, Cantu, S, Miller, RJH, et al
Circulation. Cardiovascular imaging. 2020;(2):e009829
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume (cm3) and attenuation (Hounsfield units) may predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of fully automated deep learning-based EAT volume and attenuation measurements quantified from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography. METHODS Our study included 2068 asymptomatic subjects (56±9 years, 59% male) from the EISNER trial (Early Identification of Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Noninvasive Imaging Research) with long-term follow-up after coronary artery calcium measurement. EAT volume and mean attenuation were quantified using automated deep learning software from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography. MACE was defined as myocardial infarction, late (>180 days) revascularization, and cardiac death. EAT measures were compared to coronary artery calcium score and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score for MACE prediction. RESULTS At 14±3 years, 223 subjects suffered MACE. Increased EAT volume and decreased EAT attenuation were both independently associated with MACE. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, coronary artery calcium, and EAT volume were associated with increased risk of MACE (hazard ratio [95%CI]: 1.03 [1.01-1.04]; 1.25 [1.19-1.30]; and 1.35 [1.07-1.68], P<0.01 for all) and EAT attenuation was inversely associated with MACE (hazard ratio, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.72-0.96]; P=0.01), with corresponding Harrell C statistic of 0.76. MACE risk progressively increased with EAT volume ≥113 cm3 and coronary artery calcium ≥100 AU and was highest in subjects with both (P<0.02 for all). In 1317 subjects, EAT volume was correlated with inflammatory biomarkers C-reactive protein, myeloperoxidase, and adiponectin reduction; EAT attenuation was inversely related to these biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS Fully automated EAT volume and attenuation quantification by deep learning from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography can provide prognostic value for the asymptomatic patient, without additional imaging or physician interaction.
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Machine learning to predict the long-term risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death based on clinical risk, coronary calcium, and epicardial adipose tissue: a prospective study.
Commandeur, F, Slomka, PJ, Goeller, M, Chen, X, Cadet, S, Razipour, A, McElhinney, P, Gransar, H, Cantu, S, Miller, RJH, et al
Cardiovascular research. 2020;(14):2216-2225
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Abstract
AIMS: Our aim was to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML), integrating clinical parameters with coronary artery calcium (CAC), and automated epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) quantification, for the prediction of long-term risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiac death in asymptomatic subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS Our study included 1912 asymptomatic subjects [1117 (58.4%) male, age: 55.8 ± 9.1 years] from the prospective EISNER trial with long-term follow-up after CAC scoring. EAT volume and density were quantified using a fully automated deep learning method. ML extreme gradient boosting was trained using clinical co-variates, plasma lipid panel measurements, risk factors, CAC, aortic calcium, and automated EAT measures, and validated using repeated 10-fold cross validation. During mean follow-up of 14.5 ± 2 years, 76 events of MI and/or cardiac death occurred. ML obtained a significantly higher AUC than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and CAC score for predicting events (ML: 0.82; ASCVD 0.77; CAC: 0.77, P < 0.05 for all). Subjects with a higher ML score (by Youden's index) had high hazard of suffering events (HR: 10.38, P < 0.001); the relationships persisted in multivariable analysis including ASCVD-risk and CAC measures (HR: 2.94, P = 0.005). Age, ASCVD-risk, and CAC were prognostically important for both genders. Systolic blood pressure was more important than cholesterol in women, and the opposite in men. CONCLUSIONS In this prospective study, machine learning used to integrate clinical and quantitative imaging-based variables significantly improves prediction of MI and cardiac death compared with standard clinical risk assessment. Following further validation, such a personalized paradigm could potentially be used to improve cardiovascular risk assessment.