-
1.
Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies.
Smith, T, Muller, DC, Moons, KGM, Cross, AJ, Johansson, M, Ferrari, P, Fagherazzi, G, Peeters, PHM, Severi, G, Hüsing, A, et al
Gut. 2019;(4):672-683
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts. DESIGN Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability). RESULTS The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC. CONCLUSION Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.
-
2.
Identifying sources of measurement error in assessing dietary intakes - Results of a multi-country ring-trial.
Gavrieli, A, Trichopoulou, A, Valsta, LM, Ioannidou, S, Berry, R, Roe, M, Harvey, L, Finglas, P, Glibetic, M, Gurinovic, M, et al
Nutrition, metabolism, and cardiovascular diseases : NMCD. 2019;(2):127-134
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Epidemiological investigations include dietary intakes as primary exposures or potential confounders. To reduce bias, data collection protocols include the administration of questionnaires together with measurements of biomarkers. Some error, however, remains and needs to be considered in the analysis and interpretation of results. The European Food Safety Authority supported a ring-trial to compare the precision and reproducibility of dietary assessment methods applied in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS Software applications used to collect 24-hour recalls and food records in six countries (Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden) were assessed. The intake of 256 foods was identically reported to each method. Experienced interviewers participated and were instructed to repeat national protocols closely. The error in recording quantities, compared with reference values, was variable but in about 60% of recorded quantities was in the range of ±20%. Errors were however unsystematic and independent of the food type or quantification method used - although food pictures performed better. The reproducibility of some tools was limited. The methods generally captured additional ingredients (usually flavoring agents), but not sweetening agents or fortification and failed to record packaging information in about 60% of the cases. CONCLUSION In a design that eliminated respondent bias, this study indicates that softwares, supporting databases and interviewers generally introduce random error in dietary assessments. The inclusion of large sample sizes and food pictures to quantify portions, together with enhanced attention on interviewers' training, standardisation of procedures and regular tool upgrades are essential in assuring a study's quality and comparability.
-
3.
Comparison of general obesity and measures of body fat distribution in older adults in relation to cancer risk: meta-analysis of individual participant data of seven prospective cohorts in Europe.
Freisling, H, Arnold, M, Soerjomataram, I, O'Doherty, MG, Ordóñez-Mena, JM, Bamia, C, Kampman, E, Leitzmann, M, Romieu, I, Kee, F, et al
British journal of cancer. 2017;(11):1486-1497
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
BACKGROUND We evaluated the associations of anthropometric indicators of general obesity (body mass index, BMI), an established risk factor of various cancer, and body fat distribution (waist circumference, WC; hip circumference, HC; and waist-to-hip ratio, WHR), which may better reflect metabolic complications of obesity, with total obesity-related and site-specific (colorectal and postmenopausal breast) cancer incidence. METHODS This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02-1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98-1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00-1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer (Pinteraction<0.001), where never HT users showed an ∼20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users. CONCLUSIONS BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use.
-
4.
Association of CRP genetic variants with blood concentrations of C-reactive protein and colorectal cancer risk.
Nimptsch, K, Aleksandrova, K, Boeing, H, Janke, J, Lee, YA, Jenab, M, Bueno-de-Mesquita, HB, Jansen, EH, Tsilidis, KK, Trichopoulou, A, et al
International journal of cancer. 2015;(5):1181-92
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
High blood concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with elevated risk of colorectal cancer in several prospective studies including the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), but it is unknown whether these observations reflect a causal relationship. We aimed to investigate whether CRP genetic variants associated with lifelong higher CRP concentrations translate into higher colorectal cancer risk. We conducted a prospective nested case-control study within EPIC including 727 cases diagnosed between 1992 and 2003 and 727 matched controls selected according to an incidence-density sampling protocol. Baseline CRP concentrations were measured in plasma samples by a high sensitivity assay. Tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP gene (rs1205, rs1800947, rs1130864, rs2808630, rs3093077) were identified via HapMap. The causal effect of CRP on colorectal cancer risk was examined in a Mendelian Randomization approach utilizing multiple CRP genetic variants as instrumental variables. The SNPs rs1205, rs1800947, rs1130864 and rs3093077 were significantly associated with CRP concentrations and were incorporated in a CRP allele score which was associated with 13% higher CRP concentrations per allele count (95% confidence interval 8-19%). Using the CRP-score as instrumental variable, genetically twofold higher CRP concentrations were associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.85). Similar observations were made using alternative definitions of instrumental variables. Our findings give support to the hypothesis that elevated circulating CRP may play a direct role in the etiology of colorectal cancer.
-
5.
Relation of dietary glycemic load with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: a cohort study in Greece and a meta-analysis.
Rossi, M, Turati, F, Lagiou, P, Trichopoulos, D, La Vecchia, C, Trichopoulou, A
European journal of nutrition. 2015;(2):215-22
Abstract
PURPOSE High glycemic load (GL) has been associated with excess stroke risk. Data suggest a different role of diet in the etiology of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS We analyzed data from 19,824 participants of the Greek cohort of the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), who were free of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and diabetes at baseline and had not developed diabetes. Diet was assessed at enrollment through a validated, interviewer-administered semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. The average daily GL was derived using standard tables. We also conducted a meta-analysis on GL and stroke (overall, ischemic and hemorrhagic), using random-effects models. RESULTS In the Greek EPIC cohort, 304 incident stroke cases were identified (67 ischemic, 49 hemorrhagic). Using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for potential confounders, the hazard ratios for the highest versus the lowest GL tertiles were 1.07 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.74-1.54] for overall stroke, 1.55 (95 % CI 0.72-3.36) for ischemic and 0.48 (95 % CI 0.18-1.25) for hemorrhagic stroke (p-heterogeneity <0.01). The meta-analysis, including a total of 3,088 incident cases and 247 deaths from stroke (1,469 cases and 126 deaths ischemic; 576 cases and 94 deaths hemorrhagic), estimated pooled relative risks for the highest versus the lowest GL levels of 1.23 (95 % CI 1.07-1.41) for overall, 1.35 (95 % CI 1.06-1.72) for ischemic, and 1.09 (95 % CI 0.81-1.47) for hemorrhagic stroke (p-heterogeneity = 0.275). CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that GL is an important determinant of the more common ischemic-though not of the hemorrhagic-stroke.
-
6.
Insulin-like growth factor I and risk of breast cancer by age and hormone receptor status-A prospective study within the EPIC cohort.
Kaaks, R, Johnson, T, Tikk, K, Sookthai, D, Tjønneland, A, Roswall, N, Overvad, K, Clavel-Chapelon, F, Boutron-Ruault, MC, Dossus, L, et al
International journal of cancer. 2014;(11):2683-90
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
Experimental evidence shows cross-talk in mammary cells between estrogen, insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and their respective receptors and possible synergistic effects of estrogen receptor (ER) activation and increased IGF-I signaling with regard to breast tumor development, and epidemiological evidence suggests that circulating IGF-I levels may be related more to the risk of ER-positive than ER-negative breast cancer. Using a case-control study nested within the prospective European EPIC cohort (938 breast cancer cases and 1,394 matched control subjects), we analyzed the relationships of prediagnostic serum IGF-I levels with the risk of estrogen and progesterone receptor-positive and -negative breast tumors. IGF-I levels were positively associated with the risk of ER+ breast tumors overall (pre- and postmenopausal women combined, odds ratio (OR)Q4-Q1 = 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.98] for the highest vs. lowest quartile; OR = 1.17 [95% CI 1.04-1.33] per 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in IGF-I, ptrend = 0.01) and among women who were diagnosed with breast cancer at 50 years or older (ORQ3-Q1 = 1.38 [95% CI 1.01-1.89]; OR = 1.19 [95% CI 1.04-1.36] per 1-SD increase in IGF-I, ptrend = 0.01) but not with receptor-positive disease diagnosed at an earlier age. No statistically significant associations were observed for ER- breast tumors overall and by age at diagnosis. Tests for heterogeneity by receptor status of the tumor were not statistically significant, except for women diagnosed with breast cancer at 50 years or older (phet = 0.03 for ER+/PR+ vs. ER-/PR- disease). Our data add to a global body of evidence indicating that higher circulating IGF-I levels may increase risk specifically of receptor-positive, but not receptor-negative, breast cancer diagnosed at 50 years or older.
-
7.
Cancer and Mediterranean dietary traditions.
Trichopoulou, A, Lagiou, P, Kuper, H, Trichopoulos, D
Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology. 2000;(9):869-73
Abstract
The incidence of cancer overall in Mediterranean countries is lower than in Scandinavian countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This is mostly accounted for by the lower incidence among Mediterranean countries of cancer of the large bowel, breast, endometrium, and prostate. These forms of cancer have been linked to dietary factors, particularly low consumption of vegetables and fruit, and to a certain extent, high consumption of meat. The traditional Mediterranean diet is characterized by high consumption of foods of plant origin, relatively low consumption of red meat, and high consumption of olive oil, which in several studies has been reported to be more beneficial against cancer than other forms of added lipids. By taking into account the established or presumed nutritional causation of major forms of cancer and the composition of the traditional Mediterranean diet, estimates can be derived concerning the fraction of cancer occurrence in highly developed Western countries that could be attributed to their diets in comparison with the healthy traditional Mediterranean diet. Although estimates can only be crude, it can be calculated that up to 25% of the incidence of colorectal cancer, approximately 15% of the incidence of breast cancer, and approximately 10% of the incidence of prostate, pancreas, and endometrial cancer could be prevented if the populations of highly developed Western countries could shift to the traditional healthy Mediterranean diet.