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Individual outcome prediction models for patients with COVID-19 based on their first day of admission to the intensive care unit.
Rigo-Bonnin, R, Gumucio-Sanguino, VD, Pérez-Fernández, XL, Corral-Ansa, L, Fuset-Cabanes, M, Pons-Serra, M, Hernández-Jiménez, E, Ventura-Pedret, S, Boza-Hernández, E, Gasa, M, et al
Clinical biochemistry. 2022;:13-21
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Currently, good prognosis and management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 are crucial for developing disease management guidelines and providing a viable healthcare system. We aimed to propose individual outcome prediction models based on binary logistic regression (BLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) analyses of data collected in the first 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with COVID-19 infection. We also analysed different variables for ICU patients who survived and those who died. METHODS Data from 326 critically ill patients with COVID-19 were collected. Data were captured on laboratory variables, demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and hospital stay related information. These data were compared with patient outcomes (survivor and non-survivor patients). BLR was assessed using the Wald Forward Stepwise method, and the ANN model was constructed using multilayer perceptron architecture. RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ANN model was significantly larger than the BLR model (0.917 vs 0.810; p < 0.001) for predicting individual outcomes. In addition, ANN model presented similar negative predictive value than the BLR model (95.9% vs 94.8%). Variables such as age, pH, potassium ion, partial pressure of oxygen, and chloride were present in both models and they were significant predictors of death in COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS Our study could provide helpful information for other hospitals to develop their own individual outcome prediction models based, mainly, on laboratory variables. Furthermore, it offers valuable information on which variables could predict a fatal outcome for ICU patients with COVID-19.
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Alarming increase in ketoacidosis in children and adolescents with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Israel.
Goldman, S, Pinhas-Hamiel, O, Weinberg, A, Auerbach, A, German, A, Haim, A, Zung, A, Brener, A, Strich, D, Azoulay, E, et al
Pediatric diabetes. 2022;(1):10-18
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the incidence and severity of ketoacidosis (DKA) at type 1 diabetes diagnosis during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Israel. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A population-based study the product of a national collaboration of Israeli pediatric diabetes centers investigated the presentation of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. The frequencies of DKA and severe DKA observed during the COVID-19 period from March 15, 2020 (commencement of the first nationwide lockdown) until June 30, 2020 were compared with the same periods in 2019, 2018, and 2017 using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic position. RESULTS During the COVID-19 period, DKA incidence was 58.2%, significantly higher than in 2019 (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.18 [95% CI, 1.31-3.60], P = 0.003); 2018 (aOR 2.05 [95% CI, 1.26-3.34], P = 0.004); and 2017 (aOR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.09-2.93], P = 0.022). The incidence of severe DKA was 19.9%, significantly higher than in 2018 (aOR, 2.49 [95% CI, 1.20-5.19], P = 0.015) and 2017 (aOR, 2.73 [95% CI, 1.28-5.82], P = 0.009). In 2020, admissions and duration of stay in the intensive care unit were higher than in previous years (P = 0.001). During the COVID-19 pandemic, children aged 6-11 years had higher incidences of DKA (61.3% vs. 34.0%, 40.6%, and 45.1%, respectively, P = 0.012), and severe DKA (29.3% vs. 15.1%, 10.9%, and 5.9%, respectively, P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS The dramatic increase in DKA at presentation of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic mandates targeted measures to raise public and physician awareness.
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Prevalence of malnutrition in coronavirus disease 19: the NUTRICOV study.
Rouget, A, Vardon-Bounes, F, Lorber, P, Vavasseur, A, Marion, O, Marcheix, B, Lairez, O, Balardy, L, Fourcade, O, Conil, JM, et al
The British journal of nutrition. 2021;(9):1296-1303
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Recent European Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition guidelines highlighted the interest of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition in the management of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prevalence of malnutrition in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. In a prospective observational cohort study malnutrition was diagnosed according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) two-step approach. Patients were divided into two groups according to the diagnosis of malnutrition. Covariate selection for the multivariate analysis was based on P <0·2 in univariate analysis, with a logistic regression model and a backward elimination procedure. A partitioning of the population was realised. Eighty patients were prospectively enrolled. Thirty patients (37·5 %) had criteria for malnutrition. The need for intensive care unit admission (n 46, 57·5 %) was similar in the two groups. Three patients who died (3·75 %) were malnourished. Multivariate analysis exhibited that low BMI (OR 0·83, 95 % CI 0·73, 0·96, P = 0·0083), dyslipidaemia (OR 29·45, 95 % CI 3·12, 277·73, P = 0·0031), oral intake reduction <50 % (OR 3·169, 95 % CI 1·04, 9·64, P = 0·0422) and glomerular filtration rate (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration; CKD-EPI) at admission (OR 0·979, 95 % CI 0·96, 0·998, P = 0·0297) were associated with the occurrence of malnutrition. We demonstrate the existence of a high prevalence of malnutrition in a general cohort of COVID-19 inpatients according to GLIM criteria. Nutritional support in COVID-19 care seems an essential element.
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[Mortality and associated prognostic factors in elderly and very elderly hospitalized patients with respiratory disease COVID-19].
Águila-Gordo, D, Martínez-Del Río, J, Mazoteras-Muñoz, V, Negreira-Caamaño, M, Nieto-Sandoval Martín de la Sierra, P, Piqueras-Flores, J
Revista espanola de geriatria y gerontologia. 2021;(5):259-267
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INTRODUCTION Elderly patients with COVID-19 has a worse clinical evolution, being more susceptible to develop serious manifestations. The differences between the elderly and very elderly population, mortality and associated prognostic factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection have not been enough studied yet. METHODS An observational study of 416 elderly patients admitted consecutively to Hospital General Universitario de Ciudad Real for COVID-19 respiratory infection from March 1st to April 30th, 2020. Data were collected including patient demographic information, medical history, clinical characteristics, laboratory data, therapeutic interventions and clinical outcomes during the hospitalization and after discharge, until June 15, 2020 with the aim of analyzing mortality, and associated prognostic factors. RESULTS The mean age was 84.43±5.74 years old; elderly patients (75-84 years) were 50.2% of the sample and very elderly (≥85 years) the remaining 49.8%. In Cox regression model, mortality rate was higher in very elderly group (HR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.23-5.38; P = .01), hypertensive (HR = 3, 45; 95% CI: 1.13-10.5; P = .03) and chronic kidney disease patients (HR = 3.86; 95% CI: 1.3-11.43; P = .02). In contrast, calcium antagonists (HR = 0.27; 95% CI: 0.12-0.62; P = .002) and anticoagulant therapy during hospitalization (HR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.08 0, 83; P = .02) were associated with a longer time free of mortality. CONCLUSIONS Mortality rate was higher in very eldery patients compared with eldery; and in hypertensive and chronic kidney disease patients. Anticoagulation therapy and calcium chanel bloquers treatment during hospitalization were associated with a higher survival in the short-term follow-up in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
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Assessment of Spanish Food Consumption Patterns during COVID-19 Home Confinement.
Maestre, A, Sospedra, I, Martínez-Sanz, JM, Gutierrez-Hervas, A, Fernández-Saez, J, Hurtado-Sánchez, JA, Norte, A
Nutrients. 2021;(11)
Abstract
People's eating habits and lifestyle can have a negative impact on health. In situations of difficulty or socioeconomic crisis, these habits tend to be modified, leading to unhealthy dietary patterns that result in an increase of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Previous studies have indicated that, due to the state of alarm imposed in Spain to combat the spread of COVID-19, an increase in the purchase of non-core products occurred, along with a decrease in the daily physical activity of the population. This could be a risk factor for COVID-19 infection. The objective of this observational study was to analyze the dietary pattern of the Spanish population during home confinement and to compare it with the pattern of habitual consumption collected in the last National Health Survey, analyzing the possible changes. More than half of the respondents in the sample increased their consumption of sweets and snacks during confinement, while the consumption of fresh products decreased. Most claimed to be emotionally hungry, leading to an increase in their daily energy intake. The stress and anxiety generated by confinement could be the cause of the increased consumption of products rich in sugars and saturated fats, which are associated with greater stress and anxiety.
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Guillain-Barré syndrome is infrequent among recipients of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.
García-Grimshaw, M, Michel-Chávez, A, Vera-Zertuche, JM, Galnares-Olalde, JA, Hernández-Vanegas, LE, Figueroa-Cucurachi, M, Paredes-Ceballos, O, Reyes-Terán, G, Carbajal-Sandoval, G, Ceballos-Liceaga, SE, et al
Clinical immunology (Orlando, Fla.). 2021;:108818
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Vaccines are the most effective strategy to mitigate the global impact of COVID-19. However, vaccine hesitancy is common, particularly among minorities. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the most common autoimmune illness of the peripheral nervous system, occurring at an incidence of 1.1/100,000 worldwide. A causal link between mRNA vaccines and GBS has not been previously evaluated. We analyzed a cohort of 3,890,250 Hispanic/Latinx recipients of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (613,780 of whom had already received both doses) for incident GBS occurring within 30 days from vaccine administration. Seven cases of GBS were detected among first-dose recipients, for an observed incidence of 0.18/100,000 administered doses during the prespecified timeframe of 30 days. No cases were reported after second-dose administration. Our data suggest that, among recipients of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, GBS may occur at the expected community-based rate; however, this should be taken with caution as the current incidence of GBS among the unvaccinated population against COVID-19 is still undetermined. We hope that this preliminary data will increase the public perception of safety toward mRNA-based vaccines and reduce vaccine hesitancy.
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Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study.
Menni, C, Klaser, K, May, A, Polidori, L, Capdevila, J, Louca, P, Sudre, CH, Nguyen, LH, Drew, DA, Merino, J, et al
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 2021;(7):939-949
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) COVID-19 vaccines have shown excellent safety and efficacy in phase 3 trials. We aimed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines in a UK community setting. METHODS In this prospective observational study, we examined the proportion and probability of self-reported systemic and local side-effects within 8 days of vaccination in individuals using the COVID Symptom Study app who received one or two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine or one dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We also compared infection rates in a subset of vaccinated individuals subsequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR or lateral flow tests with infection rates in unvaccinated controls. All analyses were adjusted by age (≤55 years vs >55 years), sex, health-care worker status (binary variable), obesity (BMI <30 kg/m2vs ≥30 kg/m2), and comorbidities (binary variable, with or without comorbidities). FINDINGS Between Dec 8, and March 10, 2021, 627 383 individuals reported being vaccinated with 655 590 doses: 282 103 received one dose of BNT162b2, of whom 28 207 received a second dose, and 345 280 received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were reported by 13·5% (38 155 of 282 103) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 22·0% (6216 of 28 207) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 33·7% (116 473 of 345 280) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Local side-effects were reported by 71·9% (150 023 of 208 767) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 68·5% (9025 of 13 179) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 58·7% (104 282 of 177 655) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection. Local effects were similarly higher in individuals previously infected than in those without known past infection (1·4 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 1·2 times after the first dose of BNT162b2). 3106 of 103 622 vaccinated individuals and 50 340 of 464 356 unvaccinated controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Significant reductions in infection risk were seen starting at 12 days after the first dose, reaching 60% (95% CI 49-68) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 69% (66-72) for BNT162b2 at 21-44 days and 72% (63-79) for BNT162b2 after 45-59 days. INTERPRETATION Systemic and local side-effects after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination occur at frequencies lower than reported in phase 3 trials. Both vaccines decrease the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 days. FUNDING ZOE Global, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Research and Innovation, American Gastroenterological Association.
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The Minimal Effect of Zinc on the Survival of Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: An Observational Study.
Yao, JS, Paguio, JA, Dee, EC, Tan, HC, Moulick, A, Milazzo, C, Jurado, J, Della Penna, N, Celi, LA
Chest. 2021;(1):108-111
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COVID-19: Up to 82% critically ill patients had low Vitamin C values.
Tomasa-Irriguible, TM, Bielsa-Berrocal, L
Nutrition journal. 2021;(1):66
Abstract
There are limited proven therapeutic options for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. We underwent an observational study with the aim of measure plasma vitamin C levels in a population of critically ill COVID-19 adult patients who met ARDS criteria according to the Berlin definition. This epidemiological study brings to light that up to 82% had low Vitamin C values. Notwithstanding the limitation that this is a single-center study, it nevertheless shows an important issue. Given the potential role of vitamin C in sepsis and ARDS, there is gathering interest of whether supplementation could be beneficial in COVID-19.
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Association between use of Qingfei Paidu Tang and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A national retrospective registry study.
Zhang, L, Zheng, X, Bai, X, Wang, Q, Chen, B, Wang, H, Lu, J, Hu, S, Zhang, X, Zhang, H, et al
Phytomedicine : international journal of phytotherapy and phytopharmacology. 2021;:153531
Abstract
BACKGROUND Qingfei Paidu Tang (QPT), a formula of traditional Chinese medicine, which was suggested to be able to ease symptoms in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been recommended by clinical guidelines and widely used to treat COVID-19 in China. However, whether it decreases mortality remains unknown. PURPOSE We aimed to explore the association between QPT use and in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN A retrospective study based on a real-world database was conducted. METHODS We identified patients consecutively hospitalized with COVID-19 in 15 hospitals from a national retrospective registry in China, from January through May 2020. Data on patients' characteristics, treatments, and outcomes were extracted from the electronic medical records. The association of QPT use with COVID-19 related mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models based on propensity score analysis. RESULTS Of the 8939 patients included, 28.7% received QPT. The COVID-19 related mortality was 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8% to 1.7%) among the patients receiving QPT and 4.8% (95% CI 4.3% to 5.3%) among those not receiving QPT. After adjustment for patient characteristics and concomitant treatments, QPT use was associated with a relative reduction of 50% in-hospital COVID-19 related mortality (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.66 p < 0.001). This association was consistent across subgroups by sex and age. Meanwhile, the incidences of acute liver injury (8.9% [95% CI, 7.8% to 10.1%] vs. 9.9% [95% CI, 9.2% to 10.7%]; odds ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.81% to 1.14%], p = 0.658) and acute kidney injury (1.6% [95% CI, 1.2% to 2.2%] vs. 3.0% [95% CI, 2.6% to 3.5%]; odds ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.62 to 1.17], p = 0.318) were comparable between patients receiving QPT and those not receiving QPT. The major study limitations included that the study was an observational study based on real-world data rather than a randomized control trial, and the quality of data could be affected by the accuracy and completeness of medical records. CONCLUSIONS QPT was associated with a substantially lower risk of in-hospital mortality, without extra risk of acute liver injury or acute kidney injury among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.