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A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study.
Sakakibara, T, Shindo, Y, Kobayashi, D, Sano, M, Okumura, J, Murakami, Y, Takahashi, K, Matsui, S, Yagi, T, Saka, H, et al
BMC pulmonary medicine. 2022;(1):34
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP. METHODS Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study. RESULTS The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2-3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/μL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO2/FIO2 ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200-300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO2 (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO3- (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2-2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4-5, 6-7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity. CONCLUSIONS ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points. TRIAL REGISTRATION This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.
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Managing folate deficiency implies filling the gap between laboratory and clinical assessment.
Ferraro, S, Biganzoli, G, Gringeri, M, Radice, S, Rizzuto, AS, Carnovale, C, Biganzoli, EM, Clementi, E
Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland). 2022;(2):374-383
Abstract
The characterization of folate status in subjects at risk of deficiency and with altered vitamin homeostasis is crucial to endorse preventive intervention health policies, especially in developed countries. Several physiological changes (i.e. pregnancy), clinical situations and diseases have been associated to increased requirement, impaired intake and absorption of folate. However clinical practice guidelines (CPG) endorse folic acid supplementation generally discarding the use of its determination in serum to assess the risk of deficiency and/or its concentration at baseline. Poor confidence on the diagnostic accuracy of serum folate assays still persists in the current CPGs although recent standardization efforts have greatly improved inter-method variability and precision. In this review we critically appraise the methodological issues concerning laboratory folate determination and the evidence on the potential adverse effects of folic acid exposure. The final aim is to build a sound background to promote serum folate-based cost-effective health care policies by optimizing folic acid supplementation in subjects at risk of deficiency and with altered folate homeostasis. Our first result was to adjust in relation to current serum folate assays the thresholds reported by CPGs as index of folate status, defined on the association with metabolic and hematologic indicators. We identify a statistically significant difference between the estimated thresholds and accordingly show that the assessment of folate status actually changes in relation to the assay employed. The use of the method-dependent thresholds here reported may pragmatically endorse the stewardship of folic acid supplementation in clinical practice and increase the cost-effectiveness of health care policies.
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Association of metabolomic markers and response to nutritional support: A secondary analysis of the EFFORT trial using an untargeted metabolomics approach.
Struja, T, Wolski, W, Schapbach, R, Mueller, B, Laczko, E, Schuetz, P
Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland). 2021;(9):5062-5070
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The EFFORT trial reported a substantial risk reduction for adverse events and mortality in medical in-patients receiving a nutritional support intervention. With the use of an untargeted metabolomics approach, we investigated the prognostic and therapeutic potential of metabolomic markers to understand, whether there are distinct metabolic patterns associated with malnutrition risk as assessed by the Nutritional Risk screening (NRS 2002) score, the risk of 30-day mortality and the response to nutritional support, respectively. METHODS Out of the 2088 samples we randomly selected 120 blood samples drawn on day 1 after hospital admission and before treatment initiation. Samples were stratified by NRS 2002, treatment allocation (intervention vs. control), and mortality at 30 days, but not on the type of medical illness. We performed untargeted analysis by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS We measured 1389 metabolites in 120 patients of which 81 (67.5%) survived until day 30. After filtering, 371 metabolites remained, and 200 were matched to one or more Human Metabolome Data Base (HMDB) entries. Between group analysis showed a slight distinction between the treatment groups for patients with a NRS 3, but not for those with NRS 4 and ≥ 5. C-statistic between those who died and survived at day 30 ranged from 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.35-0.68) for a combination of 5 metabolites/predictors to 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.53-0.79) for a combination of 100 metabolites. Pathway analysis found significant enrichment in the pathways for nitrogen, vitamin B3 (nicotinate and nicotinamide), leukotriene, and arachidonic acid metabolisms in nutritional support responders compared to non-responders. CONCLUSION In our heterogenous population of medical inpatients with different illnesses and comorbidities, metabolomic markers showed little prognostic and therapeutic potential for better phenotyping malnutrition and response to nutritional therapy. Future studies should focus on more selected patient populations to understand whether a metabolomic approach can advance the nutritional care of patients.
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Hypertensive Retinopathy and the Risk of Stroke Among Hypertensive Adults in China.
Chen, X, Liu, L, Liu, M, Huang, X, Meng, Y, She, H, Zhao, L, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Gu, X, et al
Investigative ophthalmology & visual science. 2021;(9):28
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Abstract
PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate the association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke, examine possible effect modifiers in hypertensive patients, and test the appropriateness of the Keith-Wagener-Barker (KWB) classification for predicting stroke risk. METHODS In total, 9793 hypertensive participants (3727 males and 6066 females) without stroke history from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial were included in this study. The primary outcome was first stroke. RESULTS Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 592 participants experienced their first stroke (509 ischemic, 77 hemorrhagic, and six unclassifiable strokes). In total, 5590 participants were diagnosed with grade 1 retinopathy (57.08%), 1466 with grade 2 retinopathy (14.97%), 231 with grade 3 retinopathy (2.36%), and three with grade 4 retinopathy (0.03%). Grades 1 and 2 were merged and classified as mild retinopathy, and grades 3 and 4 were merged and classified as severe retinopathy. There was a significant positive association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke and first ischemic stroke, and no effect modifiers were found. The hazard ratios (HRs) for first stroke were as follows: mild versus no retinopathy, 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.58, P = 0.040), and severe versus no retinopathy, 2.40 (95% CI, 1.49-3.84, P < 0.001). The HRs for ischemic stroke were as follows: severe versus no retinopathy, 2.35 (95% CI, 1.41-3.90, P = 0.001), and nonsignificantly increased HRs for mild versus no retinopathy, 1.26 (95% CI, 0.99-1.60, P = 0.057). CONCLUSIONS There was a significant positive association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke in patients with hypertension, indicating that hypertensive retinopathy may be a predictor of the risk of stroke. A simplified two-grade classification system based on the KWB classification is recommended for predicting stroke risk.
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Clinical risk predictors in atrial fibrillation patients following successful coronary stenting: ENTRUST-AF PCI sub-analysis.
Goette, A, Eckardt, L, Valgimigli, M, Lewalter, T, Laeis, P, Reimitz, PE, Smolnik, R, Zierhut, W, Tijssen, JG, Vranckx, P
Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society. 2021;(6):831-840
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AIMS: This subgroup analysis of the ENTRUST-AF PCI trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02866175; Date of registration: August 2016) evaluated type of AF, and CHA2DS2-VASc score parameters as predictors for clinical outcome. METHODS Patients were randomly assigned after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to either edoxaban (60 mg/30 mg once daily [OD]; n = 751) plus a P2Y12 inhibitor for 12 months or a vitamin K antagonist [VKA] (n = 755) plus a P2Y12 inhibitor and aspirin (100 mg OD, for 1-12 months). The primary outcome was a composite of major/clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNM) within 12 months. The composite efficacy endpoint consisted of cardiovascular death, stroke, systemic embolic events, myocardial infarction (MI), and definite stent thrombosis. RESULTS Major/CRNM bleeding event rates were 20.7%/year and 25.6%/year with edoxaban and warfarin, respectively (HR [95% CI]: 0.83 [0.654-1.047]). The event rates of composite outcome were 7.26%/year and 6.86%/year, respectively (HR [95% CI]): 1.06 [0.711-1.587]), and of overall net clinical benefit were 12.48%/year and 12.80%/year, respectively (HR [(95% CI]: 0.99 [(0.730; 1.343]). Increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased rates of all outcomes. CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 5 was a marker for stent thrombosis. Paroxysmal AF was associated with a higher occurrence of MI (4.87% versus 2.01%, p = 0.0024). CONCLUSION After PCI in AF patients, increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased bleeding rates and CHA2DS2-VASc score (≥ 5) predicted the occurrence of stent thrombosis. Paroxysmal AF was associated with MI. These findings may have important clinical implications in AF patients.
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Non-invasive stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in non-alcoholic fatty liver using polygenic risk scores.
Bianco, C, Jamialahmadi, O, Pelusi, S, Baselli, G, Dongiovanni, P, Zanoni, I, Santoro, L, Maier, S, Liguori, A, Meroni, M, et al
Journal of hepatology. 2021;(4):775-782
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk stratification in individuals with dysmetabolism is a major unmet need. Genetic predisposition contributes to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to exploit robust polygenic risk scores (PRS) that can be evaluated in the clinic to gain insight into the causal relationship between NAFLD and HCC, and to improve HCC risk stratification. METHODS We examined at-risk individuals (NAFLD cohort, n = 2,566; 226 with HCC; and a replication cohort of 427 German patients with NAFLD) and the general population (UK Biobank [UKBB] cohort, n = 364,048; 202 with HCC). Variants in PNPLA3-TM6SF2-GCKR-MBOAT7 were combined in a hepatic fat PRS (PRS-HFC), and then adjusted for HSD17B13 (PRS-5). RESULTS In the NAFLD cohort, the adjusted impact of genetic risk variants on HCC was proportional to the predisposition to fatty liver (p = 0.002) with some heterogeneity in the effect. PRS predicted HCC more robustly than single variants (p <10-13). The association between PRS and HCC was mainly mediated through severe fibrosis, but was independent of fibrosis in clinically relevant subgroups, and was also observed in those without severe fibrosis (p <0.05). In the UKBB cohort, PRS predicted HCC independently of classical risk factors and cirrhosis (p <10-7). In the NAFLD cohort, we identified high PRS cut-offs (≥0.532/0.495 for PRS-HFC/PRS-5) that in the UKBB cohort detected HCC with ~90% specificity but limited sensitivity; PRS predicted HCC both in individuals with (p <10-5) and without cirrhosis (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS Our results are consistent with a causal relationship between hepatic fat and HCC. PRS improved the accuracy of HCC detection and may help stratify HCC risk in individuals with dysmetabolism, including those without severe liver fibrosis. Further studies are needed to validate our findings. LAY SUMMARY By analyzing variations in genes that contribute to fatty liver disease, we developed two risk scores to help predict liver cancer in individuals with obesity-related metabolic complications. These risk scores can be easily tested in the clinic. We showed that the risk scores helped to identify the risk of liver cancer both in high-risk individuals and in the general population.
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Hiding unhealthy heart outcomes in a low-fat diet trial: the Women's Health Initiative Randomized Controlled Dietary Modification Trial finds that postmenopausal women with established coronary heart disease were at increased risk of an adverse outcome if they consumed a low-fat 'heart-healthy' diet.
Noakes, TD
Open heart. 2021;(2)
Abstract
The Women's Health Initiative Randomized Controlled Dietary Modification Trial (WHIRCDMT) was designed to test whether the US Department of Agriculture's 1977 Dietary Guidelines for Americans protects against coronary heart disease (CHD) and other chronic diseases. The only significant finding in the original 2006 WHIRCDMT publication was that postmenopausal women with CHD randomised to a low-fat 'heart-healthy' diet in 1993 were at 26% greater risk of developing additional CHD events compared with women with CHD eating the control diet. A 2017 WHIRCDMT publication includes data for an additional 5 years of follow-up. It finds that CHD risk in this subgroup of postmenopausal women had increased further to 47%-61%. The authors present three post-hoc rationalisations to explain why this finding is 'inadmissible': (1) only women in this subgroup were less likely to adhere to the prescribed dietary intervention; (2) their failure to follow the intervention diet increased their CHD risk; and (3) only these women were more likely to not have received cholesterol-lowering drugs. These rationalisations appear spurious. Rather these findings are better explained as a direct consequence of postmenopausal women with features of insulin resistance (IR) eating a low-fat high-carbohydrate diet for 13 years. All the worst clinical features of IR, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in some, can be 'reversed' by the prescription of a high-fat low-carbohydrate diet. The Women's Health Study has recently reported that T2DM (10.71-fold increased risk) and other markers of IR including metabolic syndrome (6.09-fold increased risk) were the most powerful predictors of future CHD development in women; blood low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol concentration was a poor predictor (1.38-fold increased risk). These studies challenge the prescription of the low-fat high-carbohydrate heart-healthy diet, at least in postmenopausal women with IR, especially T2DM. According to the medical principle of 'first do no harm', this practice is now shown to be not evidence-based, making it scientifically unjustifiable, perhaps unethical.
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Hip fractures in elderly patients with non-dialysis dependent chronic kidney disease: Outcomes in a Southeast Asian population.
Roy, D, Pande, S, Thalanki, S, Yeon, W, Prasad, A, Lau, A, Varman, S, Carson, JA
Medicine. 2021;(27):e26625
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) causes bone and mineral disorders and alterations in vitamin D metabolism that contribute to greater skeletal fragility. Hip fracture in elderly is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the outcome of elderly patients with non-dialysis dependent CKD and hip fracture undergoing surgery.Retrospective study with IRB approval of patients above 65 years of age, with hip fractures admitted between June 2014 to June 2016 in a Southeast Asian cohort. Data collected included demographic variables and the haematological and biochemical parameters HBA1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), serum calcium, phosphorous, and 25(OH) Vitamin D. Co-morbidities investigated were ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, malignancy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebro vascular accident, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. All patients were followed up from index date to either death or June 1, 2018.Of the 883 patients, 725 underwent surgery and 334 had CKD. Death rates for CKD patients with hip fractures and those with normal renal function did not differ significantly [8.08% vs 6.54%, (HR= 1.33, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.86; P = .102)], whilst median hospital length of stay was significantly higher in CKD patients [10.5 vs 9.03 days (P = .003)]. Significant risk factors associated with higher risk of mortality in the elderly with hip fracture were male gender, age ≥80 years and serum albumin < 30 g/L (all, P < .0001).In summary, in elderly, non-dialysis dependent CKD patient with hip fracture we found that male gender, age ≥80 years, low serum albumin and eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 were associated with higher risk of death. The hospital stay in the CKD group was also longer. Additional studies are needed to validate our findings.
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Derivation of a Coronary Age Calculator Using Traditional Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.
Blaha, MJ, Naazie, IN, Cainzos-Achirica, M, Dardari, ZA, DeFilippis, AP, McClelland, RL, Mirbolouk, M, Orimoloye, OA, Dzaye, O, Nasir, K, et al
Journal of the American Heart Association. 2021;(6):e019351
Abstract
Background The optimal method for communicating coronary heart disease (CHD) risk to individual patients is not yet clear. Recent research supports the concept of "coronary age" for more effective risk communication. We defined an individual's coronary age as the age at which an average healthy individual would have an equivalent estimated CHD risk as that calculated for the index individual, building on our previously validated MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) 10-year CHD Risk Score equations with and without coronary artery calcium (CAC). Methods and Results We derived a coronary age by (1) calculating the MESA 10-year CHD risk; (2) mathematically setting this equal to an equation describing risk of an average healthy MESA participant, as a function of age; and (3) solving for age. The risk discrimination of the resultant coronary age was compared with that of chronological age, the MESA CHD Risk Score, and CAC alone. Approximately 95% of coronary age values ranged from 30 years less to 30 years higher than chronological age. Although the mean chronological age of individuals experiencing CHD events compared with those free of events was 67.4 versus 61.8 years, the difference in coronary age including CAC was larger (80.6 versus 62.8 years). Coronary age with CAC had identical predictive ability to that of MESA CHD Risk Score and outperformed chronological age and CAC alone. Conclusions The newly derived coronary age is a convenient transformation of MESA CHD Risk, retaining very good risk discrimination. This easy-to-communicate tool will be available for patients and clinicians, potentially facilitating risk communication in routine care.
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A nomogram incorporated lifestyle indicators for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.
Peng, K, Wang, S, Gao, L, You, H
Medicine. 2021;(26):e26415
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Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease, and its pathogenesis is complicated and triggered by unbalanced diet, sedentary lifestyle, and genetic background. The aim of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram incorporated lifestyle habits for predicting NAFLD incidence.The overall cohort was divided into training set and test set as using computer-generated random numbers. We constructed the nomogram by multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training set. Thereafter, we validated this model by concordance index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), net reclassification index, and a calibration curve in the test set. Additionally, we also evaluated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram by decision curve analysis.There were no statistically significant differences about characteristics between training cohort (n = 748) and test cohort (n = 320). Eleven features (age, sex, body mass index, drinking tea, physical exercise, energy, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes) were incorporated to construct the nomogram, concordance index, the area under the ROC curve, net reclassification index were 0.801, 0.801, and 0.084, respectively, indicating the nomogram have good discrimination of predicting NAFLD incidence. Also, the calibration curve showed good consistency between nomogram prediction and actual probability. Moreover, the decision curve showed that when the threshold probability of an individual is within a range from approximately 0.5 to 0.8, this model provided more net benefit to predict NAFLD incidence risk than the current strategies.This nomogram can be regarded as a user-friendly tool for assessing the risk of NAFLD incidence, and thus help to facilitate management of NAFLD including lifestyle and medical interventions.